16.12.2019: A year ago, conventional wisdom became convinced that a stock market correction was really the beginning of a “bear market,” and a sure sign that recession was on its way. Conventional wisdom was wrong again.
The pouting pundits still talk about low economic growth and fret that a trade war is brewing. Meanwhile the S&P 500 has risen by 28.9 % by mid-December, the MSCI EUROPE by 23 % and the DAX by 25.8 %.
Many market experts are still surprised by the last rise in risk assets: Given the weakening of the global economy, the new equity highs and the decline in credit spreads, do not match reality.
So, what is the reason for the recent rise in stock markets? Are the pessimists right? Is there any sign of recovery in the manufacturing Industry?